DRAM is a kind of memory chip used to hold working data while a computer is running. The selected reports discuss ordinary DRAM separately from stacked memory products. ASP is the average price a company receives across the products it sells. A memory upcycle is a period when demand is strong enough relative to supply for memory prices and profits to improve. HBM is memory made by stacking chips so large amounts of data can move quickly to processors used for artificial-intelligence work. QoQ means a change compared with the previous three-month reporting period.
Samsung Electronics is moving into a less obvious part of the memory cycle. A memory upcycle is a period when demand is strong enough relative to supply for memory prices and profits to improve. The key question is no longer whether prices can rise as fast as they did earlier in the cycle. It is whether supply can stay tight enough for prices and margins to remain high. ASP is the average price a company receives across the products it sells.
That distinction matters because slower price growth is not the same as falling prices. DRAM is a kind of memory chip used to hold working data while a computer is running. The selected reports discuss ordinary DRAM separately from stacked memory products. HBM is memory made by stacking chips so large amounts of data can move quickly to processors used for artificial-intelligence work.
Price growth is slowing, but that is not the same as falling prices
Quarterly DRAM price growth is forecast to cool, yet prices can still rise. QoQ means a change compared with the previous three-month reporting period. Korean Research C estimates conventional DRAM ASP growth of 18% QoQ in 3Q26 and 12% in 4Q26.
The speed of price increases and the direction of prices are different questions. The price paths below are research estimates, so they describe the current cycle thesis rather than realized future prices.
HBM is taking capacity that could have served ordinary DRAM
HBM demand can tighten conventional DRAM supply because both draw on limited production resources. Korean Research B argues that strong HBM demand can use production resources that might otherwise make conventional DRAM. It also points to growing memory demand from AI inference.
That can keep the broader memory market tighter for longer. Korean Research A separately argues that 2027 HBM pricing power could remain supported by supply shortages and higher production costs.
Samsung is entering this debate from a very profitable base
Filed first-half results show that Samsung was already generating very large earnings before the latest forecast period. Company filings via DART report first-half 2026 consolidated revenue of 305,372,914,000,000 KRW and 146,725,209,000,000 KRW in profit from the company’s core business after operating costs.
KRX data show Samsung Electronics shares rose 3.4483% from 1 September to 28 September 2026 on a price-return basis. Slower price gains do not automatically imply an immediate earnings collapse. These official figures do not prove the memory cycle will last, but they show the earnings and market context entering the latest forecast period.
What to watch next
The thesis depends on supply staying constrained and price growth remaining positive as 2027 approaches. The most useful checks are whether conventional DRAM pricing stays positive, whether HBM continues to absorb production resources, and whether supplier pricing power in HBM remains firm.
These signals can strengthen or weaken the durability case. If they weaken together, the case for a longer cycle would weaken. If they hold, slower quarterly price increases could still be consistent with a durable upcycle.
